Route to Indian consumers' heart is through their stomach.. Click here to read full article

Why international business firm's need to adapt to local consumer culture in India. This article shows it for hotel industry.

Can morality be taught?

Hello and wellcome after long time!

Here is a presentation that I made based on my research on  how do accountants deal with moral dilemmas. I will write little more about this dilemma again in future but for time being have a look at this academic presentation. The talk was given at the University of Konstanz, Konstanz ,Germany, where I happened to be odd one among philosophers and educational psychologits!


Click here for the video linked 

To download powerpoint slides  click here

Adapting multinational companies to local culture

How and why McDonald's had to adapt their strategy in India? Watch  in the 5 minute video, my take on the issue, I will be eager to know your views! Do provide your views.

Why are Indian vegetables more expensive in my town these days?

Imagine you have carefully planned your wedding for three years and are all set to fly to Antigua to get married. Along with your fiancé and the best man and three bridesmaids you reach Gatwick airport in London where you are told that your flight has been cancelled. This is exactly what happened to Kelly Williams and her fiancé Barry Stephens in April 2010. The couple had to call off their wedding. Why? Because of Eyjafjallajökull! Now imagine you are a famous cookery expert. You have been invited to visit Washington to do a special meal for the First Lady of US, Michelle Obama and her family. You find on the day of your travel from London, UK to Washington that your flight is cancelled. Sally Bee, the famous cooker expert, felt heartbroken. Why me? Because of Eyjafjallajökull!

Sun at 10.30 p.m. in Reykjavik, Iceland, June 2007.

Photo: Devendra Kodwani

Eyjafjallajökull is a volcano that I saw on the Icelandic map lying down in the hotel room at Reykjavik in 2007. Little did I realize then that the small beautiful country of 300,000 people in the middle of north Atlantic ocean will be making global news in the following two-three years. The first big news it made relates to consequences of 2007-2008 the banking crisis in the US and Western Europe which led to global economic recession. The second relates to eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 that caused gridlock in the air space over Europe. Why do I mention these two events and what do they tell us about taking, planning and managing risk in life, business and career?

What are the chances of a volcano under Icelandic glacier erupting and releasing clouds of ash containing little rocks, ash and glass particles into atmosphere at the height of 20,000 to 30,000 feet in one of the busiest airspaces in the world over northern Europe? The chances of such an event are very few. It is what a statistician would call a very low probability event. The impact of some rare event could be very high. The ashy, rocky and glassy clouds hovering high in the flight paths could get into the powerful jet engines of wonderful flying machines we call airplanes. The heat of these engines would melt the glass and rock which in turn will choke the engines themselves and stop them making the Boeings into gliders in no time. Obviously the consequences could be tragic. That’s why for the first time in history of civil aviation the European air traffic controllers banned the flights for days. Till few days ago very few travelers would have thought that such an event would take place. But it did.

Overlooking the sulpher springs (Hot water) on volcanic surface in Iceland, June 2007
Photo: Devendra Kodwani


Now think about municipal councils of various cities in the UK, treasurers of many reputed universities in the UK, including Oxford and Cambridge, end up making huge deposits running into millions of dollars with Icelandic banks finding that their deposits are nearly lost because of Icelandic banks collapsing in the aftermath of global banking crisis.

Be it holiday makers and other travelers or the finance experts managing the funds of universities, councils and pension funds none considered that a very low probability event such as banking collapses or a volcanic eruption grounding 20000 flights could happen. These are what Nassim Taleb calls Black Swans. You may spot a million white swans over the years but that is no guarantee that there are no Black Swans. This phenomenon in statistics is a called finding an observation with a very very low probability. Remember a very low probability is not same as impossibility. There are some important lessons that Black Swans have for business managers and individuals when thinking about risk.

At a hiltop revolving restaurant overlooking Reykjavik, Iceland,

About 11.30 p.m., June 2007

Photo: Someone sitting next to me at the restaurant 

Risk is chance of something happening other than expected. Risk is a fact of life in any walk of life. Highly improbable events from winning a lottery from 10 million tickets to being struck by a lightning do happen. The world leader in automobile engineering and known for their quality Toyota may mess up breaking and accelerator pedals. So the first lesson is to recognize we are all exposed to risk. Second, too much reliance on the historical trends is not advisable. History may repeat itself but that does not give you competitive advantage. Why? Because everyone knows that history repeats itself hence you knowing it is no special knowledge that you possess and others don’t. Knowledge may provide edge to your organization only when you have exclusive access.

Actually a third more important lesson is that claims of business and economic knowledge and expertise have to be taken not with pinch but fist full of salt. There is a philosophical reason behind this. One of the greatest philosophers of 20th century, Karl Popper gave us a big idea of ‘indeterminacy’. Roughly his argument is that it is humanly impossible to know everything. There is limit to how much we can rationally know and understand. This leads to some practical ideas that you may find useful.

First, do not rely much on forecasts based on the historical trends. Since risk is inevitable part of life, do take risks (because otherwise you take it without your knowing) but know the potential consequences of the worst possible outcome. Second develop the ability to see the unintended consequences of any event. Here are some unintended consequences of shutting down the European airspace for few days in light of Icelandic volcano. We saw the hardships of travelers but now consider this.

Few days back I went  to the market to buy vegetables with my wife. Usually we get most green vegetables in this small town market in southeast of England where we live. But that day there were no good quality fresh vegetables available and what was available was expensive. No surprises the Icelandic volcano in the middle of north Atlantic island had direct impact on our dining table! Most vegetables come to the UK through aerial route.

In future the travel insurance contracts will have to include or to exclude more explicitly 'travel chaos caused by volcanic ash' as a risk covered!

Several business and academic conferences were cancelled.

The Royal Mail took its mail from UK to Spain by train before flying it from there to the US.

But there is other side to problems, as always. The disasters bring out best in human creativity and compassion also. Read this and reflect how creative we could become if viewed remote risks as near possibilities. Tom Noble, a marketing director from north London, wanted to reach UK from France but was stuck because of flight cancellation. He had option to cross English channel on ferry. But he found at Dunkirk in France where he went to board the ferry that there was no space left for passengers on foot. There were though few seats available for the cyclists. Tom went back to streets of Dunkirk and bought a woman’s bicycle for 40 Euro and caught the Norfolkline ferry to UK in time to reach for his wife’s birthday. Another executive with British Airways gold card came riding a children’s bike!

The biggest risk is not to take any. The biggest mistake is not to make any. How? Think of one invention in history of human civilization that might have been done perfectly right in the first attempt. I am sure you will struggle to find one. Einstein once said that if an idea does not sound absurd in first instance then it is perhaps not worth pursuing.

Photo: Devendra Kodwani    
                            

What do you think about relevance of above article to life, profession, business? Anything that you takeaway that's worth sharing with others? Share if you ever converted a  problem into an opportunity to think or do something different which resulted in unintended positive development?

Could we have learned from history the banking crisis of 2007-08 and the economic crisis that followed? To listen to my views follow this link 

Two individual journeys that changed destination of millions

Our first hero's journey!

Traveling around is considered to be a great educational experience. But some times even one journey could be the turning point in your life. Here I am going to write about two such journeys in the life of two remarkable Indians that changed the course of not only their own lives but transformed the lives of millions.

Year 1893. The place, South Africa. There sat in a very cold wintry night of South Africa a man without adequate warm clothes in the waiting room of a railway station. Nothing is extraordinary about if this wait was by choice, nay but it was by choice in a way. The story (real) is this.

Before our hero lost his belongings and found himself in the waiting room of a railway station, he boarded the first class compartment of a train from Durban to Pretoria. When the train arrived at Pietermaritzburg (also called Maritzburg) at about 9.00 p.m. a white passenger seated in the compartment did not like our hero who being Indian was ‘coloured’. In those days the whites and the coloured were segregated in every walk of life in South Africa. When asked to go out of the first class and board a van compartment at back of the train, the ‘coloured’ man refused. He was then forcibly taken off the coach but still refused to board the van compartment arguing that he had got the first class ticket so he had right to travel by first class. In the process the train left and our man found himself waiting in the cold night at the Maritzburg station. This man was none other than M.K. Gandhi, who would later become the hero of India’s freedom movement and get India independence from the British in 1947.

What happened to Gandhi that night on Maritzburg station was a transformational experience. Gandhi was new in South Africa and had gone there to develop his career as a lawyer. The physical hardship that he faced during this journey is nothing compared to the humiliation he felt being discriminated against because of the colour of his skin. He resolved to fight the ‘disease of colour prejudice’ as he calls it in his autobiography. This is when a big turning point came, Gandhi decided to take up a public cause and the great leader started one of the several battles that he won without resorting to violence and ultimately won India her freedom.

Our second hero’s journey!

Year 1974. Place Nis, a border town between Serbia (at that time it was part of Yugoslovia) and Bulgaria. Both were communists countries at that time. A young Indian was hitchhiking has way all the way from Paris to Mysore in South India!

It is a coincidence with the previous story but here also it was about 9.00 p.m. when our hero of this story was dropped at Nis station on Saturday night. The restaurant was closed and with no local currency and the banks to open only on Monday, our hero slept on the railway platform till next evening 8.30 p.m. to catch Sophia Express.

There were only two other passengers in the compartment; a boy and a girl. Our hero struck a conversation with the girl in French. The girl described how hard it was to live in a communist country. Suddenly there arrived policemen who were actually called in by the third passenger, the boy, who thought our hero and the girl were criticising the Communist government of Bulgaria. The girl was taken away and so was the luggage of our hero who was then dragged away and put in a small room of 8x8. The room was cold with stone floor and a hole in a corner to be used for calls of the nature. Our hero was left in that room to cool his heels for 72 hours without any food or water. Then he was dragged outside humiliatingly and locked up in the guard’s room on a freight train going to Istanbul where he was to be released after 20 hours. When finally he was let off in Istanbul, the guard’s parting message meant that he was let off because he was from a friendly country! India during 1970s was close to coming to communism having nationalised banks and other industries and increased the role of state in the economy. India had adopted Soviet styled planned economic development and heavy regulation of the economy since early 1950s. Anyway, our starving hero, who did have some Left leaning views at that time, had been without food for nearly five days and was shaken from inside out, literally!

Thirty five years after this life transforming long, lonely, cold journey from Nis to Istanbul, our hero writes this in his book, “ Deep in my heart, I always thank the Bulgarian guards for transforming me from a confused Leftist into a determined, compassionate capitalist! Inevitably, this sequence of events led to the eventual founding of Infosys in 1981.” Yes, our hero of this story is N R Narayana Murthy and he writes the above in his book A Better India: A Better World published in 2009. Set up in 1981, one of the giants in IT companies in India, Infosys today has revenues in excess of $3 billion, net income of close to $1 billion, market value of over $28 billion, has created more than 70,000 well paying jobs, 2,000 plus dollar millionaires and 20,000 plus Indian Rupee millionaires.

Two journeys that changed the destinations of millions, didn’t they?

15000 hours and success in life!

Everyone wants to know the formula for success, whatever way you may define success. Latest among the several people who have tried to come up with the answer is Malcolm Gladwell, the author of the book Outliers. Gladwell is author of other popular books Blink and the Tipping Point. The title of his latest book ‘outlier’ comes from language of statistics. In simple terms outlier would mean someone outside the normal range of distribution therefore, someone who has been more successful than others. Bill Gates in getting rich, Beatles in music, Pele in football and Sachin Tendulkar in cricket are outliers in their respective fields. What makes these people so successful? Gladwell argues that most of us could be successful if we worked hard, avail the opportunities that come our way and be well networked mentally and socially. Gladwell’s thumb rule on hard work is 15,000 hours. By illustrating through lives of Bil Gates, Beatles, Steve Jobs (of Apple fame) and many others it is argued that most of these people put in roughly about 15,000 hours of hard work in their field of work be it programming, music, sports or writing to achieve the level of proficiency that sets the scene for launching into successful journey..but the argument also assumes that you have bit of luck, social skills and connections as Gladwell shows beautifully. I think 15,000 hours (read hard work) is a plausible and useful idea. It may not be sufficient but it definitely is necessary. There is no short cut to success as they say. Try it out and see the results. I think most authors, athletes, business people, communication experts or sales people or teachers and others would be receptive to this thumb rule.

Now if you were to pursue a new hobby or career or activity that you wish to excel in and you are struggling to find time for it what do you do? Let’s say you want to learn to be very good keyboard player and don’t find time to practice it. Is there a way out for you? If you have patience to read I promise to help you find secret to spare nearly double the thumb rule time of 15,000 hours assuming you are healthy and not very old.

I found this secret in one of the most curious books I have ever read. Published in 1890 the book is called Enquire Within Upon Everything, a strange title you would agree. The edition I have got is a 2003 edition printed in India while the original one was printed and published in London. The book does not have any specific author because it is collection of various entries listing good practices that people were encouraged to adopt to lead a good life in Victorian Britain. In late 19th century England industrial revolution had helped with increasing wealth of common people and there was increasing desire to find about new things and so on. But there was no TV or internet. So the book Enquire Within.. was a best seller. It has sold more than one million copies. The book contains 2,775 short pieces on topics ranging from child care to food to home economy to good business practices. There are entries like how to train parrot, how to save money (‘one way to increase your wealth is to reduce your desires’ is one the quotations although there are genuinely smart non-renouncing type tips too), how to make Indian curry powder and so on. Any way before digressig more, here is the secret to find time found in the entry titled Early Rising and in my view one way of how you can find time to become great keyboard player or whatever else you wish to do:

The difference between rising every morning at six and eight, in the course of forty years, amounts to 29,200 hours, or three years 121 days and 16 hours, which are equal to 8 hours a day for exactly 10 years. So that rising at six will be same as if 10 years of life (a weighty consideration) were added, wherein we may command eight hours for the cultivation of our minds and the despatch of business.

Let’s end by noting another entry from Enquire Within.. which contains many hints on Home Comfort but I have chosen only following three:

· Eat slowly and you will not over eat.
· Between husband and wife little attentions beget much love.
· Whatever you choose to give away, always be sure to keep your temper.